Goldman Sachs Predicts China to Reduce Advanced Chip Supply Gap to 34% by 2035
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According to a Goldman Sachs analysis, China is expected to significantly reduce its advanced-chip supply deficit over the next decade as domestic production increases. The supply shortfall for wafers produced using advanced processes of 7 nanometers and below is projected to decrease from 92% in 2025 to 34% by 2035, with supply reaching 410,000 wafers per month against a demand of 619,000 wafers.
This reduction in the supply gap is crucial for China's semiconductor self-sufficiency, especially as domestic advanced-wafer supply is anticipated to grow at a compound annual rate of 46% from 2025 to 2035. Much of this growth is expected to stem from Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC), which is set to enhance its production capacity and improve yields, although lithography remains a significant challenge.
Looking ahead, the semiconductor capital expenditure in China is projected to continue its upward trajectory, reaching $82 billion by 2030. This figure reflects a 79% increase from previous estimates, driven by rising demand for artificial intelligence and advancements in China's semiconductor ecosystem. No further timeline was disclosed at the time of publication.
Original report
China could slash advanced chip supply gap to 34% by 2035, Goldman Sachs claims
InterestingEngineering.com · Maria MocerinoThis briefing is an independently written summary based on publicly available reporting and is provided for industry information and news discovery. The original report and source publication are credited and linked where applicable. RobotToday does not claim ownership of third-party source material.
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