Morgan Stanley Lifts Tesla Delivery Forecast on Stronger Europe and China Demand (TSLA)
Morgan Stanley has revised its forecast for Tesla's second-quarter vehicle deliveries, anticipating a total of approximately 413,000 units, up from an earlier estimate of 373,000. This adjustment, made on June 29, 2026, is attributed to unexpectedly strong sales trends in Europe and China, with vehicle registrations significantly surpassing last year's figures. In Europe, registrations have shown a robust recovery since April, while in China, domestic sales rebounded in May, ending a two-month decline. Despite U.S. sales lagging behind last year's performance, the trends in this region still exceeded Morgan Stanley's previous expectations. The brokerage has maintained its price target for Tesla at $415 but remains cautious about the company’s energy storage business, forecasting second-quarter deployments of 11.8 GWh, which is below the market consensus of 14.3 GWh due to delays in project timelines. However, Morgan Stanley expects a rebound in energy storage installations in the latter half of the year, aiming for a total of approximately 55 GWh for 2026. In light of the improved delivery outlook, Morgan Stanley has also increased its earnings forecasts, raising its adjusted EBITDA estimate for the second quarter by 11% and slightly adjusting full-year revenue and profit projections. Following this news, Tesla shares rose by 1.2% to close at $379.71, with a slight increase in after-hours trading.
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